市场需求对钢铁行业产能配置的非对称动态调整机制研究

Market Demand and Iron and Steel Industry Capacity Configuration:An Analysis of the Asymmetric Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism

本文以钢铁行业为例,揭示市场需求对投资和产能配置的作用机制和效应。在构建包含需求动态缺口的理论模型的基础上,本文选择2003年以来钢铁行业的季度数据,运用时变参数模型对需求诱导下产能配置的非对称性调整机制进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,需求引致性投资动态及其非对称周期运动使钢铁产能的形成与退出两阶段呈现出明显的非对称特征;在供需形势频繁转换的情形下产能的自身修正机制作用有限,一旦产能偏离均衡程度超出自身调整机制阈值,将无法通过市场调节向均衡回复,由此产生超乎寻常的"试错"成本。准确把握上述规律是实现市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的同时,更好地发挥政府作用的前提。

Taking iron and steel industry as an example,this paper aims to explore the market demand’s effect on and its mechanism for the investment and capacity allocation. Based on building a theoretical model containing a dynamic gap in demand according to the quarterly data of iron and steel industry since 2003 ,we employed the time-varying parameter model to test the asymmetric adjustment mechanism for the capacity allocation induced by demand. The results show obvious asymmetric features in the formation and exit phases of iron and steel productivity,which are caused by demand-induced dynamics and its asymmetric periodic motion;self-correction made by the mechanism of produc-tivity under the influence of frequent shifts between supply and demand is limited;once the deviation from the equilibrium level of production capacity goes beyond the threshold of the adjustment mechanism,it is unable to restore equilibrium through market regulation,thus leading to the huge“trial and error”cost. Grasping the above rules accurately is the precondition for achieving market’s decisive role in the resource allocating process and at the same time for giving full play to government function.