浙江省对外直接投资与产业结构升级实证研究——基于2002-2012年面板数据

An Empirical Study on Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Structure Upgrading in Zhejiang Province——Based on Panel Data from 2002 to 2012

借助衡量产业结构水平的三个指标,以浙江省2002-2012年面板数据为研究样本,运用协整理论就浙江省对外直接投资与产业结构升级关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,不同城市产业结构基础存在差异,杭州、宁波、舟山等城市高于全省平均水平,湖州、丽水、绍兴、台州等城市低于全省平均水平;浙江绝大部分城市对外直接投资对产业结构升级起到了促进作用,但舟山市却起到抑制作用;湖州、嘉兴、金华、绍兴等城市对外直接投资对产业结构升级的促进效果较大,杭州、宁波、衢州等城市相对较小。基于此,本文提出加大对"走出去"企业的扶持力度、鼓励和扶持中下游城市经济创新转型发展、继续发挥上游城市的引领作用等促进浙江省产业结构升级的政策建议。

By using co-integration theory and the three indicators that measure the level of industrial structure, this paper takes the panel data of Zhejiang province from 2002 to 2012 as research sample for an empirical analysis concerning the influ- ence of OFDI on the industry structure upgrading. The results are ： （ 1 ） the base of industrial structure varies among different cities, which is above the average level in Hangzhou, Ningbo and Zhoushan but below the average level in Huzhou, Lishui, Shaoxing and Taizhou; （2） OFDI can effectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure across cities in Zhejiang prov- ince with the exception of Zhoushan where it plays an inhibitory role ; （3） the promotion effect of OFDI in upgrading the indus- trial structure is stronger in Huzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua and Shaoxin but relatively weaker in Hangzhou, Ningbo and Quzhou. Based on the findings of this study, the paper proposes some strategic suggestions to promote industrial structure upgrading in Zhejiang province, which include increasing support to the ＂going out＂ enterprises, encouraging and supporting innovations and transformation of the middle and lower level cities, and making sure that the upper level cities continue to play a leading role in the upgrading endeavor.