人口城镇化和土地城镇化的投融资失衡研究

A Study on Financing and Investment Imbalance between Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization

依据1993~2012年中国分税制改革以来的全国年度数据，考量可能影响地方政府推进城镇化投融资行为的变量。结果显示：晋升激励、财政分权激励和工业化驱动与土地城镇化投融资规模存在显著的正相关性，而私人产权保护水平则与之存在显著的负相关性。结果表明，基于赶超战略的非均衡发展模式是形成以上制度安排的深层次原因，是实现土地与人口城镇化的均衡发展、城乡和工农业部门统筹发展的关键。

Using the annual data in 20 years during 1993--2012 as samples, this paper analy- ses the possible variables that may affect the local governments and their officials＂ behavior when they are carrying out the urbanization investment and financing since the reform of Chinese tax sharing system. The results show that. the promotion incentives, the fiscal decentralization and the industrialization drive have a significantly positive correlation to the investment and financing scale of land urbanization, while private property protection level has a significantly negative cor- relation. This paper points out that the catch-up strategy of unbalanced development model is the deep-seated reasons for the above system arrangement, and is the key to realizing the coordinated development between the land and population urbanization, as well as the balanced development between urban and rural sectors, the industrial and agricultural sectors.