污染产品贸易会诱使环境规制“向底线赛跑”?——基于跨国面板数据的实证分析

Does Trade of Polluted Industries Lead to A “Race to the Bottom” in Environmental Regulation?——Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data

国际贸易对于环境污染与环境规制具有重要影响作用，可能促使一国降低环境质量标准。本文建立分析污染产品贸易影响环境规制的计量模型，利用2001～2010年48个国家的跨国面板数据，结合系统GMM方法进行实证估计，结果表明，对所有国家样本和发展中国家而言，污染产品出口会引起环境规制“向底线赛跑”，而污染产品进口则会使环境成本转移到出口国，提高一国的环境规制水平；对于发达国家而言，污染产品出口贸易反而促进其提高环境规制标准。激励和加强技术创新，提升出口产品质量；优化贸易结构，降低污染产品出口，有利于环境质量改善。

International trade plays a very important role on the environmental pollution and environmental regulation,and may reduce the environmental quality standards of a country. This paper presents an econometric model analyzing theeffect of polluted product trade on the environmental regulation. The empirical study is implemented by combining the paneldata of 48 countries from 2001 to 2010 with the system GMM method. The results show that for all samples and developingcountries, the export of polluted industries leads to ＂race to the bottom＂ of environmental regulation, while the import of pollu-ted industries can enhance the environmental regulation. For developed countries, however the export of polluted industriestightens environmental regulation standards. Therefore, we should enhance the quality of export products by motivating andstrengthening technological innovation, and reduce pollution exports by optimizing the trade structure, which is helpful for environment quality improvement.