城市化与中国省际经济增长:1987～2012——基于贸易开放的视角

Urbanization and Provincial Economic Growth(1987～2012):from the View of Trade Openness

本文以1987～2012年间中国各省市的面板数据为样本，探讨了城市化、贸易开放与我国经济增长之间的关系。本文首先对各省市城市化水平数据进行了梳理和重新测度，使各省市的数据具有可比性，考虑到计量中可能存在的内生性问题，本文从地理和历史角度选取了多个工具变量，采用两阶段OLS方法进行了回归。估计结果表明，城市化、贸易开放是促进地区经济增长的重要力量，未考虑内生性的情况下，城市化、贸易开放的作用可能被低估。在城市化进程中，主要通过固定资产投资、基础设施改善来刺激经济增长，人力资本、知识溢出和产业结构升级的作用还有待提升。分地区的回归结果表明城市化、贸易开放促进经济增长的作用具有空间差异性，在沿海地区的作用显著大于内陆地区。

Based on the China＇ s provincial panel data from 1987 -2012 and on remeasuring provincial urbani-zation level , this paper tests the impact of urbanization and openness on provincial economic growth, using thetwo - stage least squares method with the historic and geographic instrumental variables for overcoming the pos-sible endogeneity. We find that urbanization and openness have the positive effects on provincial economicgrowth, OLS results without considering endogeneity maybe devalue the effects of urbanization and openness onprovincial economic growth, the effects of human capital, knowledge capital and industry structure on economicgrowth are insignificant. The effects of urbanization and openness are different between developed eastern areasand underdeveloped middle -western areas.