ESRS量表预测短暂性脑缺血发作及小卒中复发风险的研究

EVALUATION OF THE RECURRENT RISK OF PATIENTS WITH TIA OR MINOR STROKE USING ESRS

目的以EsRs（Essen Stroke Risk Score，ESRS）量表为诊断短暂性脑缺血发作（T1A）及小卒中患者复发风险的评估标准，探讨该量表预测脑卒中复发风险的价值，为TIA及小卒中二级预防提供指导。方法选取2010年1月10日-2013年12月30日在河北联合大学附属医院确诊的连续性TIA及小卒中患者为研究对象，并随访患者的复发情况，于2013年12月30日完成随访工作。应用Kaplan—Meier法进行复发率分析，采用ROC曲线评估ESRS评分衡量TIA及小卒中患者发生脑卒中复发风险预测的准确度。结果截至随访结束，共有复发病例40例，复发导致死亡9例，复发中位数时间为9．1（1～23）个月。患者1年复发率和2年复发率分别为11．9％和28．1％。应用ROC曲线的方法得出ESRS评分对TIA及小卒中复发风险均具有预测价值，EsRs评分≥3时复发可能性大，ESRS评分〈3时复发可能性小。结论ESRS评分对TIA及小卒中复发风险均具有预测价值，ESRS评分≥3时复发可能性大，ESRS评分〈3时复发可能性小。

Objective To evaluate the value of recurrent risk of patients with minor stroke and transient is- chemic attack {TIA） using ESSEN Stroke Risk Scale （ESRS}, and provide guidance for prevention of TIA and minor stroke. Methods We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with TIA or minor stroke who were admitted to the neurology department of Hebei United University Affiliated Hospital between January 10,2010 and December 30,2012. All cases were followed up since the onset of TIA or minor stroke and were finished in December 31, 2012. Kaplan - Meier methods were used to analyze the recurrence rate. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC} curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of ESRS round- ly. Results During the period of follow- up, 40 cases relapsed. The recurrence rate was 11.9~ in one year, 28.1 % in two years. ESRS scales had prognostic value for patients with minor TIA or minor stroke, ESRS scales≥3 points were more likely to recurrent. Conclusions ESRS scales have prognostic value for patients who has minor TIA or minor stroke, ESRS scales≥3 points is more likely to recurrent.