风廓线与测风塔资料在地面风场预报中的应用研究

Application of Wind Profile and Wind Tower Data in Surface Wind Field Prediction

运用四维同化方法将风廓线雷达和测风塔资料应用到WRF模式中,通过对比资料同化前后模式对地面风场的预报效果可知,加入风廓线雷达和测风塔资料后模式对风速的预报效果有明显提高,对风向的预报也有一定程度的改善;资料同化结束后,模式预报在49h内对地面风场预报效果仍有明显改善,但随着模式预报时间的增加,在模式积分49h以后,同化资料前后模式对地面风场的预报效果无明显变化。另外,通过对资料同化前后模式对风速预报误差的分析可知,在对模式风场预报的改进中风廓线雷达资料的贡献大于测风塔资料的贡献。

Using the four-dimensional data assimilation method,the wind profile radar and wind tower data are applied to the WRF model,and the comparison of the prediction effects before and after data assimilation of the surface wind field shows that wind speed forecasting is improved obviously after using the wind profile radar and wind tower data model,and the wind direction prediction is also improved to a certain extent; after the data assimilation,the model prediction within 49 hours of the surface wind field is also improved obviously,but there is no obvious variation in the effectiveness of assimilation data in the surface wind field prediction before and after data assimilation with the increased model lead time after 49 hours.By analyzing the errors of the WRF model in wind speed prediction before and after data assimilation,it is shown that the contribution of profile radar data is much greater than that of wind tower data.