基于ARPPC模型的灌区水资源可持续利用能力评价

Evaluation on sustainable utilization capacity of irrigation district water resources with ARPPC model

从水资源可持续利用的概念出发,分析了水资源可持续利用的特性,指出水资源可持续利用包括水资源质和量的可持续性、社会经济生态系统的可持续性、系统协调性和水资源利用方式四个方面。结合上述特性建立灌区水资源可持续利用能力评价指标体系,采用投影寻踪分类之属性识别(ARPPC)模型对灌区水资源可持续利用状况进行评价。结果表明:①对评价等级随机离散化处理,ARPPC模型确定的最佳投影方向分量及其平方都为变数,不能作为权重;②评价等级随机离散化处理、中心值、阈值上限、阈值下限4种方法,评价结果有所差异,采用中心值方法简单准确;③人民胜利渠灌区为例,评价结果表明该灌区水资源可持续利用能力在目标层以及三个准则层均为较弱,因此,灌区水资源供需调节能力、高效用水能力及开源节流的潜在能力均有待提高。

Based on its conception and an analysis on its characteristics, sustainable water resource utilization has four aspects： sustainability in quantity and quantity of resource supply, sustainability in meeting social-economic-ecological system demands, coordination of water resource system and social system, and water resource utilization. In this study, an index system is established for evaluation of sustainable water resource utilization capacity, and an irrigation district is evaluated using this system and an attribute recognition in projection pursuit classification （ARPPC） model. The following main results were obtained. First, the projection indexes, through randomized discretization to the rank data, were optimized by the ARPPC model and these indexes and their squares were variable, and thus they cannot be used as weights. Second, the assessment with center value method is the best among four methods of rank data evaluation, i.e. random discrete, upper threshold, lower threshold, and center value, which gave inconsistent conclusions. Last, an application of the present method to assessment on the irrigation district of the people＇s victory canal shows that its capacity of sustainable water resource utilization was relatively weak either on target layer or each of three criteria layers. Thus, this irrigation district needs an improvement on its regulation ability of water supply and demand, high-efficiency water use ability, and potential capacity for broadening sources and reducing expenditure of water resources.