基于天气因素的城市轨道交通接驳客流预测改进模型

An Improved Model of Urban Rail Transit Access Passenger Flow Forecasting Considering Weather Impact

本文从当前城市轨道交通车站接驳工作中存在的问题入手,阐明了接驳客流预测工作的重要性,并着重抓住天气因素对接驳客流预测的影响,结合现实调查数据,找出了晴天和雨天的各种接驳交通方式客流分担率变化规律;在此基础之上借助于经典的Logit模型构建了城市轨道交通接驳客流预测的改进模型,指出各种接驳方式的设施需根据不同天气条件下客流需求的最大值进行配置。

The importance of urban rail transit access passenger flow forecasting is presented due to the analysis of real problems occurred in practical situations. Weather impact upon access passenger flow forecasting between sunny and rainy days is concluded by the use of large amount of field investigation data. An improved model of urban rail transit access passenger flow forecasting is established based on the classic logit model. The capacity of access facilities should be determined by the maximum value of each mode under different weather conditions