城镇化中能源消费与二氧化碳排放研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

Research on Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China', Urbanization——Empirical Study based on the Provincial Panel Data

文章扩展了STIRPAT模型,使用1995-2011年中国30个省级面板数据,研究中国城镇化进程在全国以及区域层面上对能源消耗的需求变化与二氧化碳排放的影响效应。研究结果表明:在全国层面上,城镇化增加了对能源消费的刚性需求且对二氧化碳排放具有显著的正向影响。同时,城镇化对二氧化碳排放量影响有明显的区域差异:在东部地区,城镇化水平的提高增加了二氧化碳排放量,但在中西部地区,城镇化水平的提高减少了二氧化碳排放。基于以上结论,文章探讨了未来中国城镇发展的相关对策:适当控制土地城镇化发展速度,积极探索低碳城镇化发展模式,培养市民良好的低碳生活方式,优化与调整地区产业结构与能源消费结构。

The paper extends the STIRPAT model and uses the 1995-2011 provincial panel data, analyses urbanization constru- ction＇s impact on energy consumption and CO2 emission effect in the national and regional level. The results show that urbanization increases the demand on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the national level. At the same time, urbanization＇s carbon dioxide emissions has obvious regional differences. Urbanization increases carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern region, but reduces carbon dioxide emissions in the central and western regions. Based the conclusions on the above, we discusses the countermeasures of future low carbon urban development in China, we should reduce the speed of land urbanization appropriately; use differently policy measures in energy-saving and emission-reducing in three regions, encourage good low-carbon lifestyle in public, actively adjust the industrial structure and energy consumption structure.