河北省县域工业经济集聚程度的空间统计分析——基于ESDA和CSDA方法

A Spatial Statistical Analysis of Agglomeration Intensity in County Industrial Economy of Hebei

以2012年河北省县域工业经济为研究对象,首先运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法对县域工业总产值的分布情况进行了空间统计描述,指出冀东、冀东南和冀西北的空间集聚呈面状分布,而冀中、冀南则呈点状分布。之后,基于新经济增长理论模型,运用确认性空间数据分析(CSDA)方法对河北省县域工业经济发展的影响因素进行了分析,结果表明河北省县域工业经济已经跨越过了依靠劳动密集型投入来促进增长的阶段,步入了主要依靠资本密集型投资促进增长的阶段,而固定资产投资成为县域工业经济发展中最重要的影响因素,同时,以城乡居民存款余额为代表的资本积累成为县域工业经济发展亟须的要素之一。最后,给出了几条针对性的建议。

Aiming at the development of county industrial economy in Hebei province as a research object , this arti-cle first makes a spatial statistical description of the distribution of county industrial output value by using explorato -ry spatial data analysis （ ESDA） method, and it demonstrates that the distribution of spatial agglomeration Intensity of the East , the Southeast and the Northwest of Hebei province is areal , while the Middle and the South is scat-tered.Then, based on a model of new economic growth theory , the article discusses the influencing factors of the development of county industrial economy by involving confirmatory spatial data analysis （CSDA） method.The re-sult shows that the county industrial economy in Hebei province has crossed the stage of relying solely on labour -in-tensive investment to promote growth , and reached mainly relying on capital-intensive investment and growth stage;simultaneously , fixed-asset investment has become the most important factor in the development of the county indus -trial economy in Hebei province;while the capital accumulation represented by the deposit balance of urban and ru-ral residents becomes the urgent need of county industrial development .