耕地总量与粮食安全状态分析:以宁夏回族自治区为例

Analysis on Total Arable Land and Food Security of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

耕地是粮食生产的基础,耕地总量的变化对粮食产量和粮食安全会产生极大的影响,分析耕地变化与粮食生产的关系,对确保一个地区粮食安全具有重要的现实意义,为给政府相关部门制定耕地保护政策及粮食安全保障措施提供理论依据和借鉴,基于经验函数,利用宁夏回族自治区近30a的耕地、粮食、人口及其消费数据,对该区耕地总量和粮食安全态势进行分析,并对未来粮食安全状态进行预测,结果表明:1985年以来该区人均耕地生产能力总体呈上升趋势;除了1985年和1995年,其余年份粮食安全水平均处于安全等级以上;未来30a粮食安全等级及人均耕地生产能力都有所下降;粮食安全等级的高低与耕地总量呈正相关。

Arable land is the basic of food production,the fluctuation of total arable land has a significant impact on food yield and food security,analysis of the relationship between arable land and food production is significant in insuring regional food security.Based on empirical function and the date of arable land,grain production,population and it consumption amount nearly 30 years of Ningxia were used to analyze the trend of total arable land and food security,meanwhile the status of future food security was estimated.The result showed that the arable land productivity per capita has been rising since 1985,and the status of food security was above security class except 1985 and 1995; but the status of food security and arable land productivity per capita would be dropping for the next 30 years; there was a positive correlation between the food security and arable land productivity.