摘要
根据艾滋病在新疆的流行特点,建立了一个非线性动力系统的数学模型来研究艾滋病在新疆高危人群中传播的规律.通过查阅大量的统计数据和文献资料,确定了模型中部分参数的具体数值,然后通过数据拟合的方法得到了各个高危人群中的HIV病毒的传染性系数.在模型中,选择2004年底(2005年初)作为系统的初始点,预测了艾滋病未来几年内在新疆的流行趋势.最后,提出并比较遏止艾滋病传播的各项干预措施.
This paper presents a mathematical model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among high-risk population in Xinjiang, China. We have estimated the concrete values of many parameters in the model, In order to get the transmission rates, the epidemic parameters are chosen to fit as much as possible data publicly available for Xinjiang. With our mathematical model, the spread of HIV/AIDS in Xinjiang in recent years can be well predicted and many intervention measures which can prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS in Xinjiang are compared.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第13期167-175,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
HIV
AIDS
高危人群
数学模型
干预措施
HIV/AIDS
risky populations
mathematical model
intervention measures
