综合预测模型的构建及预测系统开发研究

Establishment of comprehensive prediction model and development of forecast system

为了避免传统组合预测方法人工赋权的主观性与简单组合难以推广的弊端,进一步提高预测精度与自动化,提出了N种单一预测模型的综合预测模型,并且给出该模型权系数的科学的数学计算步骤。以某油田勘探开发投资规模预测为实例加以验证,结果表明综合预测模型的预测精度较单一模型有明显提高,达到了预测模型精度提高与模型易于推广的目的;建立了该实例的投资规模预测系统,实现了预测与系统的结合,保证预测的高效性。

In order to avoid the traditional combination forecast method which weights are set by artificial with their subjec-tivities, and to avoid the hardness of popularizing, to further improve the prediction precision and automation, this paper puts forward a comprehensive forecasting model which is combined of single N prediction models, and gives the weight coefficient scientific mathematical calculation steps. To take that predicting the investment of oilfield exploration and development as an example, the results show that the prediction precision of integrated forecast is obvious increased than other single model, and achieves the aims of improving the accuracy and generalizing easily. Finally it builds the investment scale prediction system of this instance, realizes the combination prediction with the development system in order to ensure that prediction of high efficiency.