φ 8 mm钨球破片速度预测不确定度的评定方法

Evaluation Method of Prediction Uncertainty of φ 8 mm Spherical Fragment Speed

介绍了破片速度衰减规律模型的建立方法,阐明了破片速度预测不确定度的研究意义,探讨了影响破片速度预测不确定度的主要因素,根据破片速度衰减规律试验数据得到了破片速度预估的经验公式.建立了破片速度预测不确定度评定模型,分别探讨了各不确定度分量的计算方法.φ8 mm钨球破片试验验证了破片速度预测经验公式的准确性,并给出了其预测不确定度的计算公式.

The establishment method of velocity attenuation regularity of fragments was introduced;the re- search significance of uncertainty of fragment velocity forecast and primary factor affecting the uncertainty was discussed. Through the results of velocity attenuation regularity experiment, speed forecast empirical formula of fragments was achieved. Evaluation model for uncertainty of fragment velocity forecast was established, and calculation method of each uncertainty component was discussed. Experiment of φ8 mm spherical fragment proved the correctness of speed forecast empirical formula of fragments and achieved the uncertainty of forecast quantitatively.