中国粮食全要素生产率及影响因素的区域分异研究

Regional differentiation of grain total factor productivity and influencing factors in China

采用2001-2010年选取的我国30个省份有关粮食生产的面板数据,运用基于DEA-Malmquist生产率指数方法,对我国粮食主产区、主销区和平衡区的粮食全要素生产率增长指数进行了测算和分解,并分析了动态全要素生产率指数的时空差异及变化源泉,在此基础上,探索了全要素生产率指数及其分解值—技术效率指数、技术进步指数的外生影响因素。研究结果表明:主产区全要素生产率指数10年内平均增长0.28%,得益于技术效率的提高和技术进步,主销区呈现出粮食生产技术进步与技术效率损失并存,"双轨损失"导致全要素生产率指数平均下降0.35%,平衡区受技术进步的恶化影响导致全要素生产率指数平均下降0.69%;中央惠农政策的实施对提高主产区的粮食全要素生产率水平有显著作用,而对主销区和平衡区的影响具有一定滞后性;人均粮食生产规模和种粮机械化水平对粮食主产区的全要素生产率均有负向影响,而对粮食主销区的全要素生产率都为正向影响。对于粮食产销平衡区,人均粮食规模的扩大能够改善技术效率,但对全要素生产率和技术进步有反向抑制作用。最后,提出了有效提高粮食生产率的对策建议。

Using grain production panel data in 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2010, this paper adopts a DEA-based Malmquist productivity index method to measure and decompose grain TFP （Total Factor Productivity） growth index of the nation＇ s main grain production areas, main grain sales areas, and balancing areas. This paper also analyzes the spatial and temporal disparities and the underlying mechanism of dynamic TFP index. On this basis, it continues to explore TFP and its decomposition value - exogenous influencing factor of technical efficiency index and technical progress index. Our results show that the TFP index of main production areas have realized an average annual increase of 0.28% within 10 years, which has benefited from technical improvement and efficiency enhancement. However, main sales areas have suffered from a duel loss in the technical progress and technical efficiency. As a result, TFP has an average annual decrease of 0.35%. TFP in balancing areas also has an average decrease of 0.69%, influenced by deterioration of technical progress. We also find that the implementation of the central government＇s favorable policies to farmers has significant influence on improving grain TFP level in main production areas. However, these policies have a lagging influence on main sales areas and balancing areas. In addition, per capital grain production scale and mechanization level have negative influence on ITP growth in main grain production area, but positive influence on TFP in main grain sales areas. As for the grain production-sales balancing areas, expansion of the per capita production scale can improve the technical efficiency, but has a reverse inhibiting impact on TFP and technical progress. Finally, based on the research results, this paper proposes measures and suggestions to improve grain productivity more effectively.