基于事故树的充填管道泵送系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis for paste backfilling pipeline pumping system based on fault tree analysis

针对膏体充填管道泵送系统事故频发、防控措施效果不理想的现状,基于事故树分析法(FTA),结合现场实际工艺,建立了泵送系统的事故树模型。通过最小割集与径集分析了泵送管路失效的路径和最优防控途径,并以某矿膏体充填管道泵送系统进行了实例分析,结合专家打分法,确定了该系统各基本事件的失效概率。结果表明:系统失效概率为95.1%,根据事故树基本事件3个重要度的计算分析,制定了相应的失效防控对策,确保了系统的安全稳定运行。

In view of the frequent accident in pipeline pumping system of paste backfilling and the low effectiveness of preventive measures, a fault tree model was established for pipeline pumping system on the basis of Fault Tree Analysis （FTA） and combined with actual worksite technology situation. The paths of pipeline pumping system failure and the optimal prevention ways were analyzed by using the least cut-set and the least path-set. Taking the pipeline pumping system of paste backfilling of a mine as a study case, the failure probability of each basic event in this system was confirmed by expert evaluation method. The results indicated that the probability of this system failure was 95. 1% ,and the corresponding prevention and control measures were determined by the calculation of importance magnitude,which ensured the safe and stable operation of the system.