城市连绵区高速公路交通量建模预测研究

Expressway Traffic Volume Forecast by Modeling in Metropolitan Stretches

高速公路交通量预测对其规划设计、投资建设、控制管理都具有重大意义,是高速公路管理决策定量化依据。针对城市连绵区高速公路不同于传统高速公路对外通道的功能与特征,采用城市交通建模的思想预测高速公路交通量,实现精细化、大区域的交通建模,提出了实时滑动、动态校核的预测方法,通过基于联网收费数据动态校核、多指标控制、多年份验证,显著提高模型的预测精度。采用该方法实现了对深圳市高速公路的建模预测、交通量预测。

Traffic volume forecast is essential to plan ,design ,invest ,build and manage expressways ,and provides quantitative basis for the management of expressways .By considering the different functions and characteristics between traditional expressways and expressways in metropolitan stretches ,the idea of urban transportation modeling is adopted to forecast expressway traffic volume .Moreover ,a new method ,Slip Predicting and Dynamical Verification ,is put for-ward .By modeling elaborately in large region ,the way of dynamical verification with multiple indexes and multiple years is used based on the network-charging-data ,which leads to the high accuracy of expressways traffic volume forecast .Be-sides ,a friendly user interface of transport model system is designed ,which can improve the model system＆#39;s practicality .