乌克兰前瞻:俄罗斯的战略困境与抉择

Looking into Ukraine: Russia's Strategic Dilemma and Choice

乌克兰是俄罗斯国家安全的重大战略依托,是俄罗斯推动的欧亚一体化进程的重要环节,是俄罗斯实现大国复兴梦想的战略支点。虽然克里米亚"回归"俄罗斯及乌克兰东部地区"独立",表明俄国在此轮对决中略占上风,但也难以扭转苏联解体以来俄罗斯对乌克兰战略选择上的困境,即未来俄罗斯仍将面临着既不能放弃乌克兰但又无法阻止其西进的两难局面。在可预测的未来,维持乌克兰的现状、保持俄乌特殊伙伴关系是俄罗斯可行的战略选择,甚至可以说是唯一的战略选择。

Ukraine is a major strategic support fbr Russia＇s national security; an important part of the Eurasian integration process promoted by Russia, and a strategic fulcrum helping Russia to realize the dream of reviving itself as a great power. Although the ＂return＂ of＂ Crimea to Russia and the ＂independence＂ of the eastern Ukraine shows that Russia has gained a head start in the competition, it is still difficult to address the predicament prcing Russia＇s strategic choice concerning Ukraine, which has existed ever since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. That is to say, in the fhture Russia will face the dilemma that it cannot afford to give up on Ukraine, yet it cannot stop it from moving westward. In the near term, maintaining the status quo in Ukraine and carrying on the special Russia-Ukraine partnership would be one of the few applicable strategic choices for Russia or even it is the only strategic choice.