基于PSR模型的低碳交通运输发展评价研究

Evaluation of Low Carbon Transportation Development Based on PSR Model

基于可持续发展评价的理论和方法,结合低碳交通运输发展内涵,应用压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型提出了低碳交通运输发展指数,建立了低碳交通运输发展评价指标体系,并使用熵值法和综合评价法对河北省低碳交通运输发展评价进行了实例研究。结果表明:河北省低碳交通运输发展压力指数逐年增大;状态指数在"十五"期间急速下降后,"十一五"期间基本保持稳定,但处于较低水平;响应指数逐年提升;综合发展指数有显著的阶段性特性,第1阶段(2001—2005年)总体上是由高到低,最低值出现在2005年,指数值仅为0.387,第2阶段(2006—2010年)总体上由低到高,但上升较为缓慢。

Based on the sustainable development theory and pressure-state-response（ PSR） model,low carbon transportation development index was presented with its connotation. A case study relating the low carbon transportation development evaluation of Hebei province was conducted by entropy method and comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the pressure index of low carbon transportation development in Hebei province increases year by year. State index sharply declines in the＂10th five-year plan＂period,and remains stability in the＂11st five-year plan＂period,although at a rather low level. Response index also increases year by year. Comprehensive development index has significant stage characteristics： the first stage（ 2001-2005） is from high to low in a whole,the minimum value appears in 2005,and the index value is 0. 387; the second stage（ 2006-2010） rises slowly with a small-scope fluctuation generally.