加工贸易的本土增值对人民币升值影响的放大效应

THE AMPLIFICATION EFFECT OF PROCESSING TRADE'S DOMESTIC VALUE ADDED ON THE IMPACT OF RMB APPRECIATION

本文基于2001—2010年中国11个制造业的季度进出口贸易数据,利用面板DOLS方法,分析了人民币升值联合出口品本土增值对一般贸易与加工贸易的影响。研究结果表明,随着中国出口品本土增值度的提升,原本缺乏汇率弹性的加工贸易出口将变得敏感,而加工贸易进口由于与出口存在着"一对一"的关系,因而汇率弹性也表现出显著为负。加工贸易的本土增值将放大人民币有效升值对减少中国贸易顺差的作用,因此,加快国内技术进步,生产更加复杂的中间品,将适当缓解人民币"被迫"持续快速升值的压力。

By using panel DOLS method with the quarter manufacture import-export data of China from 2001--2010, this paper analyzed the impact of the exports＇ domestic value-added combined RMB ap preciation on the general trade and processing trade. The empirical results showed that with the exports＇ domestic value-added upgrading, the elasticity of exchange rate for processing trade export would become sensitive and processing trade import had a ＂one-to-one＂ relationship with export so its flexibility of exchange rate was negative. The processing trade＇s domestic value-added would enlarge the function of RMB appreciation on reducing trade surplus. Therefore, speeding up technology progress, producing more complex intermediate goods would appropriately alleviate pressure on the forced and rapid appreciation of RMB.