摘要
本文通过达瓦斯两国财政离散度的测算和MSVAR模型对中美、中欧财政政策协调进行定量分析。结果表明,中欧的财政政策相关程度比中美要高,这主要是由于中国地方财政分权模式与欧元区相似,以及美元霸权地位的"资本双向流动模式"所决定。债务危机后需要各经济体进行统一协调的财政方案,否则一个开放经济体政策的作用效果会被抵消。目前中国在国际政策协调中仍处于从属地位,未来美国的财政赤字将大幅下降,同时欧元区的赤字也将波动下降,中国要加快做好经济结构调整。
This paper measures fiscal divergence of two countries by following Darvas in 2005 and ap plies MSVAR model to test policy cooperation of SinoUS and SinoEU. Empirical results show that the positive relevance of fiscal policy of SinoEU is higher than that of SinoUS. Since China is similar to EU who has fiscal decentralization between center and regions and the hegemony of US dollar. After the debt crisis, each country requires to cooperate fiscal policy. Otherwise, the effect of austerity policy will be off set. China is in the following position in the international policy cooperation. In the future, US and EU will reduce deficit so that China has to prepare for the economic adjustment.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期88-100,共13页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年课题项目(12YJC790165)
关键词
债务危机
财政赤字
政策协调
debt crisis
fiscal deficit
policy cooperation
