基于阻滞增长模型的全国人口预测

本文依据每十年一次的全国人口普查中总人口数据，建立了阻滞增长模型，并通过1975-2010年度数据验证了模型的准确性，同时利用此模型实现了对未来总人口的预测，发现我国人口总数将在2040年达到峰值，为15.18亿人，峰值后总人口数量将稍作降低，最终趋于平稳。

According to once every ten years the population in the national census data, blocks the growth model is established, and by 1975-2010 annual data verify the accuracy of the model, and using this model for the prediction of the total population in the future, found that China＆#39;s population wil peak in 2040, 1.518 bil ion, after the peak population quantity wil be slightly lower, leveled off in the end.