基于侥幸心理的自愿接种模型研究

The Analysis of Model of Voluntary Vaccination Based on the Lucky Psychology

该文基于个体接种疫苗倾向的差异性,结合博弈理论建立了一个基于节点重要性倾向的自愿接种模型;同时,针对人们在选择是否接种时存在的心理因素,建立了一个基于侥幸心理的自愿接种模型。针对疫苗永久有效、疫苗有效期有限和信息存在时间延迟3种情况,借助经典的SIS传染病模型在BA无标度网络与ER随机网络上对上述两个模型的疾病传播进程进行了对比分析。结果表明:若存在侥幸心理,BA网络中的感染节点密度将更大,即对BA网络影响更大;还发现对于该文所设参数,当人们存在侥幸心理时,感染人数增加了2倍以上。

Considering the differences of individual vaccination tendency, a model of voluntary vaccination based on the tendency of nodes importance is proposed with the help of game theory. Meanwhile, a voluntary vaccination model based on trusting to luck is presented in this paper by considering the psychological factor. Permanent vaccination, temporary vaccination and time delay of information are also considered. The process of epidemics spreading of the two proposed models on the BA scale-free network and ER random network is analyzed and compared by using the classic SIS epidemic model. The results suggest that if there is lucky psychology, the density of infection nodes will be larger in BA networks. In addition, the results show that the infections number under the parameters set in this paper increases more than 2 times when people have the lucky psychology.