基于ARMAX模型的集中供热系统负荷预测研究

Central Heating System Load Prediction Based on ARMAX Model

基于时间序列分析原理,采用最小二乘参数估计方法,通过引入室外温度作为回归项,得到了集中供热系统负荷预测的ARMAX模型并应用于对实际供水温度的预测。通过预测值和实际值的对比,其结果证明了该模型和方法的有效性。

Based on the principle of time series analysis,using least squares parameter estimation method,ARMAX model applied to the central heating system load prediction has been gotten by introducing outdoor temperature as a regression term. Through the actual prediction of the supplied water temperature,the results proved the effectiveness of the proposed model and methods.