突出预测敏感指标研究及其应用

Research and Application of Outburst Prediction Sensitive Index

采用模糊数学和多元统计分析理论建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标数学模型,定量研究了突出预测敏感指标的敏感度,并对各个指标敏感性进行排序。确定了钻屑瓦斯解吸指标Δh2与钻屑量指标S为主要预测指标,钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度指标q为辅助预测指标。利用此方法在某矿煤巷掘进工作面进行了应用。实践证明,选择的预测指标对突出危险性较敏感,保证了煤巷掘进的顺利进行。

Adopted fuzzy mathematics and Multivariate statistical analysis theory to build coal and gas outburst prediction sensitive index of mathematical model,studied sensitive outburst prediction index sensitiveness quantificationally,then sorted each index sensitiveness.Ascertained drilling cuttings gas desorption index Δh2and sludge volume index S as the main predictor,drilling hole gas emission initial speed indicator q as the auxiliary predictor.Used this method to apply in a mine coal roadway tunneling faces,the practice has proved the choice was correct and ensured the smooth progress of the coal roadway tunneling.