基于改进ISODATA的行蓄洪区运用风险评价

Improved ISODATA Algorithm for Using Risk Estimation of Flood Storage Area

在分析行蓄洪区运用风险特点的基础上,构建了基于行洪危险性、经济风险、社会风险和承灾能力4个方面17个指标的行蓄洪区运用风险评价指标体系,并尝试将改进的ISODATA聚类分析方法应用到行蓄洪区运用风险快速评价中。选择淮河干流行蓄洪区进行实证分析,将淮河干流21个行蓄洪区按运用风险高低分为5个等级。分析结果表明:淮河干流蓄洪区运用风险普遍偏高,17处行洪区中6处运用风险等级处于"高"和"较高"水平;行洪区中鲍集圩、寿西湖等运用风险最高,上六坊和洛河洼运用风险最低。

Based on analyzing the operational risk feature of flood storage area,a risk estimation system of flood storage area was established in this paper. The system contained 17 indices of 4 aspects based on the risk of flooding,economy risk,social risk and the capacity of disaster bearing. Then it used an improved ISODATA method to analyze the operational risk of the main stream of Huaihe River. Based on the risk,21 flood and flood storage areas were divided into five levels. According to the results,the most of the flood risk of flood storage areas are higher. The operational risks of 6 sites out of 17 flood areas are high and higher. The operational risk of Baojiwei,Shouxihu etc. is the highest,but the operational risk of Shangliufang and Luohewa is the lowest.