自然灾害风险评估途径的进一步探讨

A Further Study on the Approaches of Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

为进一步评判自然灾害风险评估途径的正确性和适用性问题,首先,通过对自然灾害风险评估关联要点的梳理,提出了自然灾害风险评估的基本原理;其次,基于目前自然灾害风险评估三条基本途径的特点,构建了各自对应的概念化数学模型,并借助自然灾害风险评估基本原理对其进行了符合性验证,最终认定自然灾害风险评估途径只有两类,即基于作用机制的自然灾害风险评估和基于演化结果的自然灾害风险评估,二者分别适用于应急风险评估和规划风险评估;最后,指出了自然灾害风险评估后续应重点解决的问题。

In order to further evaluate the feasibility and applicability of the approaches of natural disaster risk assessment（ NDRA）,the main research of this paper can be summarized as three aspects： firstly,through analysis on the associated key points of NDRA,the fundamental of NDRA is proposed; secondly,based on the characteristics of the three approaches of NDRA,the corresponding conceptualized mathematical models are established.By aid of conformance checking with the fundamental of NDRA,true features of the above three risk assessment approaches are further discussed,and that leaded to the conclusion that the approaches of NDRA have only two types,deriving from the mechanism and the evolution result of natural disaster risk system respectively.The former aims at emergency risk assessment and the latter serves planning risk assessment.Finally,as to NDRA,future study and its key problems to be solved are pointed out.