基于HOP模型的地质灾害区域脆弱性研究——以湖北省宜昌地区为例

Research on the Regional Vulnerability of Geological Hazards Based on the HOP Model: A Case Study of Yichang City,Hubei Province

在介绍HOP模型及其方法的基础上,以湖北省宜昌地区为案例,依据该地区地质灾害综合调查资料、统计年鉴数据资料及第六次人口普查数据资料,以乡镇为基本单元对该地区的人口分布、地质灾害暴露、社会脆弱性及区域综合脆弱性进行分析。研究结果表明:具有明显点状分布特征的地质灾害不同于呈面域发展的其它类型自然灾害,灾害暴露水平不完全由地质灾害发育水平所决定,人口分布特征对灾害暴露有显著影响,其区域脆弱性的高低主要受灾害暴露水平控制,同时受到社会脆弱性的影响。地质灾害区域脆弱性的空间分布特征对宜昌地区的防灾减灾具有实际的指导意义,从技术减灾角度分析,应综合比较分析工程防治、资产转移与人口迁移这三者的技术可行性与技术经济性;从政策减灾角度分析,应更加关注区域脆弱性更高的地区,防灾减灾的政策制定、资金投向与人力资源配备等需根据区域脆弱性的空间特征做出规划与调整。

Based on the hazards-of-place model,Yichang city of Hubei province as an example,this paper analyzed the population distribution,regional hazards exposure,social vulnerability and regional synthesized vulnerability at town dimensions depending on the data from statistical yearbook,the sixth census and the comprehensive survey of geological hazards in research area.The results showed that the geological hazards with obvious point distribution was apparently different from other types of natural hazards with polygon distribution; the exposure level of geological hazards was not entirely determined by the level of geological hazards development,and obviously affected by population distribution; the regional vulnerability triggered by geological disasters was mainly controlled by the exposure level of geological hazards,and also influenced by social vulnerability.The spatial distribution of regional vulnerability to geological hazards is important for prevention and mitigation of hazards in Yichang city.At the technical level,practical action should be based on the analysis and comparison of the technical and economic feasibility between engineering control,transfer of assets and population migration; at the policy level,the high level of regional vulnerability should be more concerned about,and government administration,such as the policy of prevention and mitigation hazards,emergent capital investment,and the manpower allocation,etc.,should be planed and adjusted according to the spatial distribution of regional vulnerability.