干旱区苹果园内温度变化规律与果园气温预测

Temperature Variation Characteristic and Forecasting Equation in Apple Orchards in Arid Regions

为了预测果园霜冻发生,提高防霜效果,果园内的最低温度及其出现时间预测非常关键。本研究利用宁夏陶林园艺场果园和银川气象台站的常规气象观测资料,分析果园内气温和最低气温的变化特征,并建立银川站与果园内的温度关系模型。结果表明:春季果园内日最低气温呈现波动状态,最低时接近-12℃,最高时达12.4℃,春季共有29天最低气温都达到0℃以下,气温低于0℃会对果树开花、坐果造成影响,日最低气温出现时间主要集中在晴天、阴天、雨(雪)天的5:00、6:00和23:00;秋季果园内日最低气温呈逐渐降低的趋势,最低时接近-13℃左右,最高时达16℃,部分时段温度过低对保障果实品质可能有一定影响,日最低温度在晴天、阴天、雨(雪)天集中出现的时间分别为7:00、8:00和23:00;果园内的日最低气温与银川站的日最低气温呈现明显的线性关系,据此建立了果园内最低气温的线性回归方程,历史回代检验表明,方程的预报绝对误差绝大多数在2℃以内,精度较好。研究结果可为果树的霜冻监测与防御提供依据,对趋利避害有重要意义。

In order to predict the frost in orchard, improve the frost effect, predicting the lowest temperatureand the time its occurrence in apple orchard is very critical. Based on the temperature observation data inTaolin Horticultural Field of Ningxia and meteorological data of Yinchuan meteorological stations, temperaturevariation characteristic was analyzed and the temperature relation model of Yinchuan meteorological stationsand orchard was set. The results showed that： the daily minimum temperature in orchards of spring in the stateof fluctuation, the minimum closed to-12℃, the maximum up to 12.4℃. The day in spring which minimumtemperature reached 0℃ was totaled 29 days, the temperature below 0℃ would affect blossom, fruiting of fruittrees. In spring the daily minimum temperature mainly occurred at 5：00, 6：00 and 23：00 in the sunny, cloudy,rain（snow） days. The daily minimum temperature in orchards of autumn decreased increasingly, the minimumclose to-13℃, the maximum up to 16℃, some time the temperature may have some effects on fruit quality. Inautumn the daily minimum temperature mainly occurred at 7：00, 8：00 and 23：00 in the sunny, cloudy, rain（snow） days. The minimum temperature in orchard and Yinchuan meteorological stations minimum temperaturewas liner relationship, and forecasting equation of the daily minimum temperature in orchard was established.The results of history back substitution showed that two forecasting equations were good accuracy： mostabsolute errors were less than 2℃. The results could provide basis for fruit frost monitoring and defense. Theresults could provide of, and it would have important significance to draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages.