中国东南地区水稻和油菜化肥施用的产量和效益分析

Yield and Economic Analysis of Fertilizers Application for Rice and Rapeseed in SE Region of China

根据国际植物营养研究所东南地区合作研究项目近10年来（2001--2010年）的田间试验、示范、调查和中国农业年鉴的统计数据对该地区水稻和油菜2种主要农作物的产量及产品价格变化情况、商品肥料价格变化情况、水稻和油菜种植的纯收益变化情况进行了分析。分析结果表明，10年间水稻和油菜产量上升了9．2％～31％，产品价格上升了80％～90．9％，同时商品NPK肥料价格上升了48．1％～236．8％，纯收益上升了42％412．3％。在此基础上对将来肥料和产品价格的变化进行了估算和预测，结果表明产品价格对水稻和油菜种植经济效益的影响最显著，与之相比，肥料价格变化的影响要小得多。因此，建议在肥料使用中更要关注如何进行合理配方，科学施用，提高施肥效益，不必过于在乎肥料价格的高低。

Based on the results of field experiments, demonstration plots and investigations that supported by IPNI China program in southeast region of China and data from the year book of Chinese agricultural statistics during 2001-2010, the authors investigated the changes of rice and rapeseed yields and prices, commercial fertilizer prices and the net benefits of rice and rapeseed planting. The results indicated that within the 10 years, the yields of rice and rapeseed increased 9.2%-31%, product prices increased 80%-90.9%, NPK commercial fertilizer prices increased 48.1%-236.8%, while net benefit increased 42%-412.3% respectively. The authors also estimated the changes of net benefits from rice and rapeseed planting with the changes of products and fertilizer prices, the results showed that product price was the most important factor that affecting crop planting net benefit, while commercial fertilizer price showed much less effect on crop planting net benefit compared with product price. Therefore, the authors suggested paying more attention to rational and scientific fertilization and increasing fertilizing efficiency in agriculture, with no need to be bothered about the fertilizer price in near future.