出口产品技术水平的影响因素——基于跨国数据的实证研究

Determinant of Technology Level of Product in Export:Empirical Study Based on Cross-country Data

利用1997—2007年全球范围内177个国家或地区的分产品贸易流量数据,运用贝叶斯模型平均方法,对不同样本国家或地区的出口产品技术水平的影响因素进行了回归分析。实证结果表明:一国的要素禀赋和贸易开放程度对其出口产品技术水平的提高具有正向作用;实际有效汇率贬值会带来本国出口产品技术水平的下降;金融深化、金融结构优化有助于提高一国出口产品的技术水平。最后,结合经验发现提出相关政策建议和总结启示。

Using the trade flow data at product level of 177 countries or regions over the period 1997-2007, this paper discusses the technology level of export product and its determinants by using the Bayesian model averaging method. The empirical results show as follows：factor endow- ment and trade openness of one country both have positive effects on the improvement in technological level of export product;the depreciation in real effective exchange rate leads to the decline of technological level of export product; financial deepening and the optimization in finance structure help to improve the technological level of export product. Finally,it gives some policy implications based on the empirical analysis.