金融危机以来跨境资金流动与人民币汇率预期、境内外利差间互动关系的实证研究

An empirical study on postcrisis cross-border capital flows and RMB exchange rate expectations

跨境资金流动、人民币汇率预期、境内外利差是影响我国金融市场稳定的三个重要因素。文章通过对这三者时间序列的实证分析，考察这三个因素之间的长短期内在影响效应，并根据实证分析结论，从维护我国国际收支平衡与深入推进利率、汇率市场化改革大局着眼，就营造和谐市场环境提出相关政策建议。

Cross-border capital flow, RMB exchange rate expectation and onshore and offshore spreads are three major factors affecting China＇s financial stability. The article gives an empirical analysis on the time series of the three factors to examine their short and long-term effects, and makes policy suggestions on creating a harmonious market environment based on the analysis and conclusions from the perspectives of maintaining the balance of payments and promoting market oriented interest rate and exchange rate reforms in China.