基于动态贝叶斯网络的快速公交运营效果评价

Evaluation for BRT Operation Performance Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

交通拥堵问题越来越成为制约城市快速发展的羁绊,而居民出行方式的选择很大程度上取决于城市公共交通出行条件的优劣.在国家"公交优先"发展战略下,不同城市发展何种类型的公共交通方式需因地制宜.针对国内快速公交系统的渐进引入,为了反映快速公交的适应性及其投入运营后的实际经济效果,针对刘家堡—兰州西站快速公交线路的实际情况,在分析快速公交运营特点和兰州市快速公交所在区域发展现状的基础上,针对居民出行行为及出行方式选择的不确定性和模糊性,运用动态贝叶斯网络理论对居民出行方式选择进行初步判断,并从微观角度对兰州市快速公交运营经济效益进行评价,结合评价结果对快速公交在整个城市交通系统中的地位和作用进行探讨.

Traffic jam has increasingly become the fetter in rapid urban development.Residents travel way selection depends mostly on travel quality of urban public transport.With the development strategy of＆quot;public transportation priority＆quot; in China,different public transportation should be developed to adapt to the local condition in different cities.According to the gradual introduction of BRT in China,the example of Liujiabu-West Station BRT in Lanzhou is taken in order to get the adaptation and the economic operation effect as BRT in operation.According to the uncertainty and fuzziness of residents travel behavior and travel way selection,Dynamic Bayesian Networks（DBN）is used to make preliminary judgment for the selection of residents travel way,and the economic operation benefit of BRT is evaluated from the microscopic angle based on its operation characters and the present situation with the aim to discuss the status and role of BRT in the whole city traffic system.