老龄化、养老保障与我国农村家庭消费——基于微观调查数据的分析

Aging Population,Pension Security and Rural Household Consumption in China—An Analysis Based on Micro Survey Data

利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年农村家庭的数据,采用分位数回归方法和ELES模型,研究了老龄化和养老保障对中国农村家庭消费行为的影响,得出的结论是:养老保障对中国农村家庭特别是有养老负担家庭的消费有显著的促进作用;在低消费水平和高消费水平的农村家庭中,养老负担对消费水平的影响作用相对较弱;有养老保障的家庭在各个消费项目上无论是消费意愿还是消费质量都要高于无养老保障的家庭,没有养老负担且有养老保障的家庭生活质量最高,而既有养老负担又无养老保障的家庭生活质量最差。

Based on the micro survey data of rural households from China Household Finance Survey （CHFS） in 2011, the paper studies the influence of aging population and pension security on consumption behaviors of rural households by using quantile regression and ELES model. The main conclusions are： pension security has a significant role in promoting rural household con- sumption, especially in those families with aged people. The influence of the burden to support the aged people on consumption behavior is relatively weak in rural households with low or high levels of consumption. Families with pension security have more consumption willingness and higher consumption quality than those without security in different consumption areas. The life quality of the households with pension security but without the burden to support the old is the best, while the life quality of households with burden to raise the old but without pension security is the worst.