基于模糊综合评价方法的配网项目效益分析

Analysis of Distribution Network Project Efficiency Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

依据佛山供电局的发展战略和电网行业特性,运用层次分析法、模糊综合评价法等方法进行配网基建项目效益分析,辅助投资决策.从经济效益、安全可靠效益和社会效益三个维度出发,合理设置评价主题和代表性指标,构造具有层级结构的效益评价模板,运用层次分析法等方法计算出下层元素(主题或指标)对上层元素的权重.采用模糊综合评价法,由隶属度函数将待选配网基建项目的底层指标数据转化为评价值,结合各层级的权重向量,计算出项目总得分并依此进行排序.在年度配网基建总投资内进行项目优选,力求项目综合效益最优.

On the basis of Foshan Power Supply Bureau＇s strategy planning and characteristics of Power Grid industry, the earnings of distribution network infrastructure development projects were analyzed to improve Foshan Power Grid＇s decision making. Economic effectiveness, power supply reliability and social benefits were adopted to construct the hierarchical benefit evaluation framework including suitable evaluation themes and key performance indexes, and calculate the weighting of lower elements （themes or indexes） to higher elements by the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. In addition,the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method was utilized to transfer indicator data of the projects to evaluation values and obtain the sequential scores of the projects,which provided a solid foundation for the optimum selection from the annual distribution network capital projects.