河南省经济增长与碳排放的脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis of Economic Growth and Energy Carbon Emissions in Henan Province

根据1990 ～2012年河南省统计数据,在计算河南省碳排放总量的基础上构建经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩分析模型,研究经济增长与碳排放间的脱钩关系.结果表明：1990 ～2012年河南省能源碳排放的GDP弹性值出现先上升、后下降的倒“U”型趋势,在2000～2005年出现未脱钩的情况之后,2005 ～ 2012年弹性值持续下降,脱钩趋势越来越显著.脱钩的程度受宏观调控和经济政策的影响较大,在目前乃至未来一段时期内仍会保持相对脱钩状态,但要实现绝对脱钩还比较困难.因此河南省在今后的发展中要做到提高能源利用效率,转变发展方式,调整产业结构,发展新兴产业,开发利用新型能源,走低碳经济之路.

Based on measuring of energy carbon emission,this article takes the statistical data of Henan from 1990 to 2012 to build a decoupling analysis model to discuss the decoupling relationship between economic growth and energy carbon emissions in Henan Province.The GDP elasticity of energy carbon emissions Henan appear ＂first rise then fall＂ of the inverted U-shaped trend.During 2000-2005,the situation did not appear decoupled,2005-2012 after declining elasticity and decoupling increasingly significant trend.It is greater impact on the degree of decoupling of austerity measures and economic policies.In the present and the future period will remain relatively decoupled state,but also more difficult to achieve absolute decoupling.Therefore,in the future development,Henan Province should improve energy use efficiency,change the development mode,adjust the industrial structure,develop new industries,utilize new energy,and take the road of low-carbon economy.