论贝叶斯决策理论的认知困境及其解答策略

Cognitive Predicament of Bayesian Decision Theory and Philosophical Reflections on the Predicament

贝叶斯决策理论是经典基础性决策理论,要求基于"理性人"假设的决策主体按照规范性决策模型并根据期望效用最大化原则作出决策。然而,该理论在实际运用中却面临着共同结果效应、信念度函数的不稳定性、偏好逆转现象、"结构"影响等与实际选择行为相悖的认知困境。对该理论的改进存在着传统和非传统两种模式,从认知角度修正和发展该理论具有重要的理论和实践意义,如何将决策的逻辑和心理过程有效结合,应成为下一步研究的方向。

According to Bayesian decision theory,the deciders based on the rational man hypothesis should follow the standardized decision model and the theory of Expected Utility Maximization to make decision.However,the theory is confronted with the cognitive predicament because of some inconsistencies between the theory and the real decision behavior.It＇s of important Theoretical and practical significance to modify and develop the theory from the angle of cognition.It should be the next research direction to make some effective combination between the logical and psychological process.