国际收支结构变动的理论和实践及其对中国的政策含义

The Theory and Practice of International Balance of Payments Structure Change and Its Policy Implications to China

国际收支平衡问题主要是围绕经常项目的平衡来展开。经常项目里主要有贸易项和投资收入项。根据国际收支克劳瑟模型理论,一国在发展过程中要经历不同阶段,随着一国国民收入水平的变化,这个国家的国际收支将发生一系列的变化。美国和亚洲国家国际收支情况的演变过程,基本符合克劳瑟模型理论,但中国是一个例外。东南亚金融危机后,中国成为世界上最重要的资本输出国,却以投资收入逆差为代价。这不仅造成巨大的福利损失,还导致了一系列的发展难题。中国应考虑是否还要继续充当资本输出国和继续积累外汇储备。

The international balanced revenues and expenditures problem is mainly to focus on the current items balance to show. Current items mainly contain trading items and investment income items. According to the international balance Crowther model theory, a country must go through different stages in the process of development. With the level of change in a country＇s national income, balance of payments of the country will be a series of changes. Evolution of the balance of payments situation in the United States and Asian countries, basically consistent with Crowther model theory, but China is an exception. After Southeast Asian financial crisis, China has become the most important capital exporting country in the world, but at the expense of investment income deficit. This not only caused huge welfare losses, but also led to a series of development problems. China should consider whether it should continue to serve as capital exporting country and continue to accumulate foreign exchange reserves.