城市道路车辆排放控制的协同效应评价

Co-benefits of Road Transport Policy in Reducing Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China

城市道路交通环境管理需要应对大气污染和温室气体排放两大难题,较优的环境管理政策具有兼顾大气污染控制和温室气体减排的协同效应。本文建立起一套评价城市道路车辆排放控制措施的方法学以评价不同地区不同行业的各类政策措施的协同效应,以污染物排放量弹性系数评价控制措施的协同效应,以单位减排当量成本评价控制措施的减排效率。在此方法基础上,本文再以北京市促进黄标车淘汰政策和深圳新能源汽车推广政策为案例,定量计算了上述政策措施对机动车排放的温室气体和大气污染物的协同效应和成本效益。结果显示北京市黄标车淘汰政策具有较高的协同效应和较低的单位减排当量成本,具备全国大范围推广的条件;深圳市新能源汽车推广政策虽然也有很好的协同效应,但购车、基础设施成本过高,在现有规模和技术水平下尚不具备全国推广的条件。

Controlling both air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions is a crucial issue in managing the urban road transport. A good policy should be effective in creating co-benefits of simultaneously reducing both air pollution and GHG emissions. This study established a set of methodologies in evaluating pollution control policies in road transport, using air pollutant elasticity of CO2 to indicate the co-benefits and avoidance cost per Air Pollution Equivalent to signify cost efficiency. Case studies were conducted to determine the effectiveness and cost efficiency of two road transport programs： Beijing＇s phasing out yellow-labeled vehicles, and Shenzhen＇s plan in promoting electrical vehicles. The results suggest that Beijing＇s program has been effective in creating co-benefits with a low cost, thus is qualified for larger scale promulgation. However, Shenzhen＇s program entailed considerable costs and is unsuitable for up-scaling.