房地产价格波动与我国货币政策工具规则的选择——基于DSGE模型的模拟分析

Real Estate Market Price Fluctuation and Instrument Rules Choice of China's Monetary Policy——Analysis Based on the DSGE Model

本文以新凯恩斯理论为基础,构建了含有九种不同货币政策工具规则的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,重点研究了关注房地产价格波动下的我国货币政策工具规则的选择问题。结果表明,在稳定产出、物价以及房价方面混合规则发挥的作用更大,我国更适合使用混合规则的货币政策工具规则。比较不同的货币政策工具规则反应类型可以发现,无论是利率规则、货币供应量规则,还是混合规则,前瞻型的货币政策工具规则都比当期型和后顾型的货币政策工具规则更适合我国的具体情况。

This Paper builds a DSGE model containing nine monetary policy rules based on the new Keynes doctrineframework. The results show that the Mixing Rule plays a greater role in the stable output, price and real estate＇s price. Chi-na is more suitable for the Mixing Rule. By comparing the different monetary policy reaction types, no matter it is for the In-terest Rule, the Money Supply Rule or the Mixing Rule, it is found that the prospective monetary policy rule is more suitablethan the current and the backward monetary policy rules for China.