供给和需求冲击下的全要素生产率变动与中国产能过剩

Supply and Demand Impact to Total Factor Productivity Change and Excess Production Capacity in China

产能过剩受供给与需求双重因素的影响。本文在已有研究的基础上,将我国全要素生产率分解为供给冲击、需求冲击和其他冲击,构造包含劳动与资本要素的计量方法,测算出我国的生产能力利用率及其变化,并实证检验我国产能过剩的本质特性及趋势特征。实证估计结果显示,我国产能过剩具有阶段性,是我国经济发展过程中供求关系的一个阶段性特征。2001年之前的大部分年份供给与需求冲击正相关且二者表现为积极冲击,2001年之后供给冲击稳定而正向需求冲击不断增加,由于产能过剩将伴随着供给冲击的增加和需求冲击的下降或者不变,因此进一步验证了我国不存在真正长期产能过剩的结论,产能过剩只是我国经济发展过程中供给与需求动态平衡过程中的暂时性特征。

Overcapacity is affected by the factors of supply and demand. On the basis of exist- ing research, we decompose the TFP into supply shocks, demand shocks and other shocks, and construct a measurement methods which contains two elements of labor and capital to measure China＇ s production capacity and changes, and examine the essential characteristics and trends of domestic overcapaeity. The empirical results show that： overcapacity is phased, and it is a stage characteristics of China＇ s economic development process of supply and demand; Supply and demand shocks show a positive correlation in the most years before 2001, and the supply shock is stable and the demand shock is positive increasing. Due to the overcapacity will be accompanied by the increasing of supply shock and the declining or unchanging of demand shock, therefore, there is no real long-term overcapacity, and overcapacity is just temporary feature of dynamic equilibrium of supply and de mand in the process of China＇ s economic development.