基于京津冀城镇群交通成本的北京极化—扩散效应分析

Analysis of the Polarization-Diffusion Effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration: Based on the Empirical Research of Transportation Cost

北京"灯下黑"现象一直是困扰政府的一个难题。通过回顾区域发展理论和新经济地理学等相关理论,归纳出两条反映区域空间结构演化的倒"U"型曲线,并从交通成本的角度对京津冀城镇群极化—扩散效应进行计量分析。结果表明,在京津冀城镇群内部,城镇距离北京越近,就业规模越小。2001—2010年间,京津冀城镇群就业规模极化程度提高了42%,就业人口分布更加不均衡。一个城镇交通可达性的改善对于该城镇的发展有着促进作用。北京对周边地区的影响仍是极化效应大于扩散效应,而且,扩散效应的经济影响还仅仅局限于隶属于北京的城镇,其他的城镇还未从中获益。根据两条倒"U"型曲线初步判断,北京与周边的中心—外围结构正在接近"拐点"。

The government has been troubled by Beijing “Black Light” phenomenon. Actually, regional development and inequality has always been the topic of the academic circles and government. There are plenty of related researches and theories on this issue. This article reviews the related theories of the regional development and new economy geography, and summarizes two meaningful “inverted U-shaped” curves about the development and evolution of regional spatial structure. This research verifies the existence of Beijing “Black Light” phenomenon and finds that it is intensifying in the past 10 years in the perspective of industry development and transportation cost through econometric analysis. The empirical results shows that the nearer towns away from Beijing, the smaller the size of employment. During the 10 years from 2001 to 2010, the polarization-balance degree of employment scale of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration has increased 42%, and the urban employed population distribution becomes more uneven spatially. The improvement of transportation accessibility plays an important role in the regional development. In terms of the surrounding areas of Beijing, the polarization effect is stronger than the diffusion effect, and moreover, the economic impact of the diffusion effect is confined to the towns that attached to Beijing, and other towns can＇ t benefit from that. According to the two “inverted U-shaped” curves, we can judge preliminarily that the “core-periphery” structure of Beijing and its surrounding areas is approaching the “turning point”. In spite of the indeterminacy of the exact “turning point”, the government still can make some effort to deal with this problem.