城市青年通婚圈变化及其影响因素研究——基于中国青年状况调查数据的实证分析

Research on the Chinese Urban Youth Intermarriage Circle Change and Influencing Factor——Empirical Analysis Based on the Chinese Youth Situation Survey Data

利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心"中国城市青年状况调查"数据,使用多项式Logistic回归分析方法,对城市青年的地域通婚圈作了研究。人口迁移流动经历对城市未婚青年意愿通婚圈和初婚青年现实通婚圈的扩大都具有明显的促进作用。城市独生子女的通婚圈明显比非独生子女小,但通婚圈不会因兄弟姐妹数量的增加而扩大。从通婚圈角度看,"二孩生育"政策应该成为我国生育政策的最终归宿。

Article uses the Population and Development Research Center of The Renmin University of China ＂Chinese City Youth Situation Investigation＂ data, and multinomial logistic return analysis method research on the urban youth of geographical intermarriage circle came to the following conclusions：population migration experience had a significant influence on the city unmarried youth＇s willing intermarriage circle and married youth＇s reality intermarriage circle expanded, we also found that one - child of urban youth intermarriage circle obviously smaller than non one - child, but intermarriage circle does not due to sib＇ s amount. The ＂Two Children＂ family planning policy should be the destiny of China＇ s fertility policy.