人际间情绪预测过程中的样例锚定效应

The Example Anchoring Effect in the Process of Interpersonal Emotional Forecasting

以教师预测学生的情绪为例,考察人际间情绪预测中是否存在样例锚定效应。两个实验分别采取自由回忆和样例启动范式操纵样例锚,并请教师预测典型教育情境中学生的情绪反应。结果发现,样例中学生的情绪越强烈,教师预测学生的情绪也越强烈,预测的准确性越低。可见,在教师预测学生情绪这样的人际间情绪预测过程中,存在样例锚定效应,但只有典型的样例锚才能促进情绪预测的准确性。

Emotional forecasting relers to the prediction of the individual and others＇ emotional state in the future. A large number ofstudies have found that it is difficult to accurately predict future emotion and that emotional forecasting bias often appears. Previousstudies show that emotional forecasting usually built on the basis of past emotional experience or memory. However, extraction of emo-tional memory has gone wrong and thus emotional forecasting bias occurs. In other words, people＇s emotional forecasting can be affectedby an emotional example of memory （example anchor）. But in the past, the research in this field only involves individuals forecastingtheir own future emotion. In this study, by taking teachers forecasting students＇ emotions as an example, the purpose of the two experi-ments is to examine whether there is an example anchoring effect when it refers to interpersonal emotional forecasting. Firstly, we hypothesize that teachers＇ memories of students＇ emotional response will affect the way teachers forecast students＇ emo-tions. Furthermore ,we hypothesize that example anchoring does not necessarily guarantee emotional forecasting accuracy. Only whentypical examples are extracted and teachers base their typical examples on forecasting anchor, teachers can make accurate emotional fore-casting. In Experiment 1 ,by using the free recall paradigm, 65 teacher participants （with an average of 16.46 years teaching experience）forecasted the emotional reaction of the students in two typical educational scenarios of the public recognition and students＇ misconcep-tions. Specifically,teachers were requested to freely recall the examples of the scenarios and then forecasted students＇ emotions. Afterexamples of students＇ emotional reactions were encoded,participants were divided into two groups including calm emotions example an-chor and strong emotions example anchor. The experiment results confirmed the hypotheses the more intense the emotion of students inthe example is, the stronger the teachers＇ forecasted students＇ emotion is, and the lower the teachers＇ emotional forecasting accuracy is.In Experiment 2, 68 teacher participants （ with art average of 6.34 years teaching experience） were selected and two typical scenarios ofpositive expectations and caring students were selected. Through the example priming paradigm we investigated the example anchoringeffect, the experimental results again confirmed the research hypotheses. The two experiments selected different typical educational scenarios and used different example anchor manipulation methods. Con-sequently, the results are exactly the same ： the example anchoring effect indeed exists when it refers to the process of interpersonal emo-tional forecasting such as teachers＇ tbreeasting of students＇ emotion. However, only typical example anchor can promote emotional fore-casting accuracy.