中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响

Characteristics and Trend of Population Aging in China and Its Potential Impact on Economic Growth

基于中国第六次全国人口普查和联合国《世界人口展望》的最新数据，采用分要素预测法和人均GDP分解法，分析中国人口老龄化的现状、特征和趋势，并探讨其对经济增长的潜在影响。研究发现，中国人口老龄化具有“来得早”、“来得快”、城乡倒置等特征。在2010-2100年期间，人口老龄化若干关键指标快速上升且长期保持高位。如果将1960-2005年的中国人口结构替换成2005-2050年的数据，人均GDP增长率将降低1．23个百分点，这一影响程度在世界范围处于很高等级。

We use poly-factor compounding projection and GDP per capita de- composition to analyze the status quo, characteristics and trend of population aging in China and its potential impact on economic growth based on China＇s sixth na- tional census and World Population Prospects data by the UN. We find that popu- lation aging in China shows some significant characteristics, such as earlier, soon- er, differences between urban and rural areas, and so on. During 2010-2100, several indicators measuring population aging rise rapidly and stay on the high level for a long time. If we switch China＇s population structure in 1960-2005 with data in 2005-2050, GDP per capita will decrease by 1.23 percent. China＇s aging has much higher negative severity of potential impact on economic growth in the world.