东亚经济周期同步性与区域经济一体化

Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Economic Integration in East Asia

利用经济周期同步性对区域经济一体化的理论含义,采用经济周期距离衡量经济周期同步性程度,结合多维标度技术,分析了包含中国在内9个东亚经济体和多种经济体组合的经济周期距离及其阶段性变化。在此基础上,构建包括双边贸易强度、专业化差异、金融联系等变量的影响因素集合对经济周期距离加以解释。实证结果不仅对东亚经济一体化进程以及中国在区域经济中的角色演化进行了评价与展望,还讨论了中国参与未来区域合作的策略选择。

Based on the implications of business cycle synchronization to re- gional economic integration, we measure the business cycle distances of 9 East Asian economies and several economy groups regarding business cycle distance as a proxy of business cycle synchronization and then explain the distances with a com- prehensive driving factors set including trade intensity, specialization, financial in-egration etc. Combining the empirical results we not only assess regional integration prospects and the changes of the role that China plays in the process, but also discuss the China＇s strategies in future cooperation in the region.