基于ARMA模型的气温衍生品定价研究:以武汉市为例

Temperature Derivatives Pricing Based on ARMA Model:the Case of Wuhan

随着气候异常变化频率的增加以及极端天气事件的频繁发生,天气风险对农业的影响尤其严重,天气风险管理成为了关注的热点。天气衍生品作为国外进行天气风险管理和转移的金融创新工具,为应对天气风险提供了重要的途径,定价问题则是天气衍生品研究中的核心问题。本文使用武汉市1990.1.1-2009.12.31的每日气温数据,采用了基于ARMA的时间序列模型分析了武汉市气温动态变化的过程,对模型进行了估计、检验了模型的预测准确度,结果表明:ARMA模型具有较好的拟合优度,能以此为基础对气温期权等天气衍生产品进行合理定价。基于以上分析,本文提出应提供有利的技术环境、政策环境和制度环境以推进农业天气衍生品开发与市场发展的政策建议。

With the increasing abnormal changes of climate in frequency, as well as the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, weather risk has particularly serious impact on agriculture and weather risk management has become a focus of attention. Weather derivatives as a financial innovative tool of weather risk management and transfer in foreign countries provides an important way to deal with weather risk, and pricing problem is the core issue in the study of weather derivatives. This article uses daily temperature data of Wuhan City from January 1, 1990 to December 31, 2009, and based on ARMA time series model to analyze dynamic changes of temperature in Wuhan City, estimates and tests the forecast accuracy of the model. Result shows that the ARMA model has a better goodness of fit, and could be as a basis for reasonable pricing of temperature options and other weather derivatives. Policy recommenda- tions are proposed that we should provide a favorable environment, policy environment and institutional environment in order to promote product development and market development of agricultural weather derivatives.