2014年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, June 2014

目的评估2014年6月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据既往历史数据分析,结合近期全国突发公共卫生事件形势,预计2014年6月全国突发公共卫生事件数与5月持平或略有下降,报告事件将以手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、水痘等传染病为主,其次为食物中毒事件;近期多地发生登革热输入病例,既往发生过登革热流行或暴发的地区尤应加强防控工作。人感染H7N9禽流感将维持在较低水平。中东呼吸综合征存在输入病例的风险,但发生大规模疫情的可能性较低。西非埃博拉病毒病疫情近期有所上升,但传入我国的风险仍为低,输入病例导致该病在我国本土化和大范围播散的可能性极低。结论 2014年6月全国突发公共卫生事件与5月持平或略有下降;需重点关注手足口病和中东呼吸综合征,一般关注人感染H7N9禽流感、埃博拉病毒病以及食物中毒。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in June 2014. Methods Expert counsel was conducted on the incidence data of public health emergency both at home and abroad and the surveillance data of priority communicable diseases reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial for disease control and prevention in China attended the evaluation through video conference. Results According to the analysis results,the incidence of public health emergency would be similar to or slightly lower than that in May and the major forms would be hand foot and mouth disease,mumps,rubella and varicella outbreaks,followed by food poisoning. Imported dengue fever was reported in some areas recently,it is important to strengthen the prevention and control in the areas where dengue fever outbreaks once occurred. The human infection with H7N9 virus will remain at a low level. The risk of imported Middle East respiratory syndrome still exist,but large scale outbreak might not occur. The risk of imported Ebola virus disease is low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergency would be similar to or slightly lower than that in May. It is necessary to pay close attention to hand foot and mouth disease,Middle East respiratory syndrome,human infection with H7N9 virus,Ebola virus disease and food poisoning.