自然通风动态风速条件建模

Natural ventilation dynamic wind speed condition modeling

基于双参数Weibull模型、马尔科夫链模型及极大似然理论模型提出适用于自然通风的动态风速条件建模方法,并对方法的合理性进行阐述。与其他风速构造方法相比,构造序列时间间隔更小,可基于逐时数据进行构造;构造过程中同时考虑自然风速的统计特性及时序特性,风速特性反映更为全面。以上海地区风速为例,进行应用分析,并建立统计模型参数与逐时平均风速的回归模型及风速变化转移概率矩阵。通过与实测风速序列对比,对该方法的有效性进行验证。研究结果表明:反演风速序列与实测风速序列特性参数一致,其中整体序列统计模型拟合尺寸因子参数分别为实测序列为3.27相应反演序列为3.33,形状因子参数值分别为实测序列为2.26相应反演序列为2.28,其他参数相对偏差亦在5%之内,证明了该方法的有效性。

The dynamic wind speed modeling method was proposed based on two-parameter Weibull model, Markov chain and maximum likelihood method. And the rationality of the method was stated. Based on hourly wind speed, smaller time scale was considered and the statistical and temporal property were considered during the process of modeling. The application of the method was analyzed by taking Shanghan’s wind speeds as an example. The progression model of wind speed statistic model parameters and hourly wind speed were set up. And the matrix of transition probability was solved based on measuring data using automatic weather station. The validity of the method was testified by comparing inversion series wind speeds and measured values. The results show that the inversion series wind speeds matches the measured data. The fitting size coefficient is 3.27 for measured data and 3.33 for inversion data; the fitting size coefficient is 2.26 for measure data and 2.28 for inversion data. The other parameter relative deviation is within 5%.